🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.